Last week Latino Review revealed that Marvel's plan for Spider-Man, were they ever able to free him from Sony, would have been to recast the role and reboot the story - start over again from scratch. Kevin Feige and friends wanted Spider-Man for Captain America: Civil War, but Sony's inability to work out a deal squashed that.
Then Mashable combed through the leaked Sony emails and discovered that in October Sony was considering the ins and outs of licensing Spider-Man to Marvel for Captain America: Civil War and possibly even a solo movie set in the MCU. This leads to the belief that it could still be possible for Spider-Man to show up in Civil War.
I reached out to my sources in Marvel and followed up on all of this - what's the realistic chance of Spider-Man being in Civil War? According to my sources that ship has sailed and Spidey is not in the current conception of Civil War. The movie will go ahead without Peter Parker.
For now. That's an important note here; there's always the possibility that Spider-Man gets himself a cameo in the film, some sort of post-credits sting. The process on these films is fluid, and Marvel relies heavily on additional shooting, so nothing is in stone until the film is in theaters. But anyone hoping that the word of Sony and Marvel negotiating could mean Peter Parker having a major role in Civil War should put that hope away.
One of my sources reiterates that Winter Soldier will be central to the story, and that there have been hints planted through the Marvel movies as to how that works. When I asked if the fact that Winter Soldier killed Tony Stark's parents could have anything to do with it, my source noted that it was an interesting line of thought. That's not quite a confirmation, but it makes an awful lot of sense that a conflict between Tony Stark and Steve Rogers starts when Tony finds out Steve's best friend killed his mom and dad.